Projected Savings at Retirement
Monthly Income Supported
Based on 4% safe withdrawal rule
Retirement Status
Table of Contents
Why this calculator matters
Retirement planning is a long compounding game where the dominant variable is when you start, not how clever your investments are. This calculator projects your portfolio to retirement age, applies the 4% safe withdrawal rule, and shows whether you're on track — or how big the gap actually is, in dollars, so you can act on it.
How the projection is calculated
Two formulas drive the result. First, the future value of your portfolio at retirement (current savings compounded plus monthly contributions accumulated):
FV = B0(1 + r/12)12t + PMT × [ ((1 + r/12)12t − 1) ÷ (r/12) ]
Then the 4% safe withdrawal rule applied to that balance to find sustainable monthly income:
Monthly income = FV × 0.04 ÷ 12
- FV — projected portfolio at retirement
- B0 — current savings
- PMT — monthly contribution
- r — expected annual return (decimal)
- t — years to retirement (retirement age − current age)
Worked example using the calculator's defaults (age 30 to 65, $25,000 current savings, $500/month contribution, 7% return, target $4,000/month income):
- t = 35 years, r/12 = 0.005833, 12t = 420 periods
- (1.005833)420 ≈ 11.547
- Existing balance grows to: 25,000 × 11.547 = $288,675
- Contributions grow to: 500 × (10.547 ÷ 0.005833) ≈ $904,184
- Projected portfolio: $1,192,859
- Monthly income at 4%: 1,192,859 × 0.04 ÷ 12 = $3,976/month
- Status: just below the $4,000 target — a roughly $25/month shortfall.
Raising monthly contributions to $520, or extending the retirement age to 66, closes that gap easily.
How much you need by lifestyle
Using the 25× expenses rule, here's what different retirement lifestyles require:
| Annual spending | Monthly spending | Portfolio needed (25×) | Lifestyle |
|---|---|---|---|
| $30,000 | $2,500 | $750,000 | Lean retirement, often paired with paid-off home |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | $1,250,000 | Below US median household, comfortable in low-cost areas |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | $1,750,000 | Median US household lifestyle |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | $2,500,000 | Comfortable middle-class with travel |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | $3,750,000 | Upper-middle — second home or extensive travel |
Social Security typically covers $15,000–48,000/year depending on earnings history and claim age, so the portfolio doesn't need to fund the entire spending number.
Fidelity's salary-multiple benchmarks by age
Fidelity Investments' published guidelines for staying on track. Multiples are of your current annual salary, assuming retirement at 67 and replacement of about 45% of pre-retirement income from savings (with SS covering the rest):
| Age | Target savings | For a $75,000 earner |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | 1× salary | $75,000 |
| 35 | 2× salary | $150,000 |
| 40 | 3× salary | $225,000 |
| 45 | 4× salary | $300,000 |
| 50 | 6× salary | $450,000 |
| 55 | 7× salary | $525,000 |
| 60 | 8× salary | $600,000 |
| 67 | 10× salary | $750,000 |
These targets are aggressive compared to actual median household savings — the Federal Reserve's 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances found median retirement account balances of about $87k for households age 55–64. Most American households are well behind Fidelity's benchmarks. If you're behind, the lever order is: work longer > save more > lower target spending.
Social Security: what it actually covers
2025 figures from the Social Security Administration:
| Claim age | Adjustment | Average benefit | Maximum benefit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 (earliest) | −30% from FRA | ~$1,383/month | ~$2,831/month |
| 66–67 (Full Retirement Age) | 100% | ~$1,976/month | ~$4,018/month |
| 70 (max delay) | +24–32% above FRA | ~$2,591/month | ~$5,108/month |
Delaying from 62 to 70 raises monthly checks by about 77% — one of the highest-return decisions available to retirees. Break-even age is typically around 80–82; if you expect to live past that, delay. If you have major health concerns, claim earlier. The SSA's own benefit calculator at ssa.gov/myaccount uses your actual earnings history for a precise estimate.
Where to save: account priority order
- 401(k) up to the employer match. Free money. A 50% match is a guaranteed 50% return that no other investment can compete with. Skipping the match is the single biggest mistake in retirement planning.
- HSA if you have a high-deductible health plan. Triple tax-advantaged (deductible going in, tax-free growth, tax-free withdrawals for medical). 2025 limit $4,300 individual / $8,550 family.
- Roth IRA up to the limit. $7,000/year ($8,000 if 50+). Tax-free withdrawals in retirement. Subject to income phase-outs.
- Max out the 401(k). Up to $23,500 ($31,000 if 50+). Tax-deferred growth, lowers current taxable income.
- Taxable brokerage. No contribution limit, no withdrawal restrictions. Use index funds to minimize tax drag.
Capturing all of items 1–3 alone gets a married couple to ~$20k/year of tax-advantaged savings before they even max the 401(k).
Limitations of this projection
- Constant returns assumed. The calculator applies the same return every year. Real-world sequences of returns matter, especially in the 5 years before and after retirement (sequence-of-returns risk).
- Nominal dollars only. A projected balance in 35 years is expressed in future dollars, not today's purchasing power. To plan in today's dollars, use a real return rate (e.g. 4–5% instead of 7%) and treat the result as inflation-adjusted.
- 4% rule has caveats. It was derived for 30-year retirements with US data and a 50–75% stock allocation. For a 40-year horizon (retiring at 55), use 3.5%. For all-bond portfolios or non-US markets, results vary.
- No tax modeling. Withdrawals from traditional 401(k)/IRA balances are taxed as ordinary income; Roth withdrawals are tax-free. The calculator doesn't distinguish — treat results as pre-tax unless your savings is entirely Roth.
- Social Security not included. Add your estimated SS monthly benefit to the "monthly income supported" figure to get total household retirement income.
- Healthcare gap. Retirees under 65 face Medicare-eligibility gap. Add $500–2,000/month per person for private health insurance in early retirement years.
Sources & references
- Cooley, Hubbard & Walz (1998) — Trinity Study — origin of the 4% rule.
- Social Security Administration — Benefit Estimators — official benefit calculation tools.
- IRS — Retirement Plans — contribution limits, RMD rules and tax treatment.
- Federal Reserve — Survey of Consumer Finances — actual US household retirement balances by age.
- Fidelity — Retirement savings benchmarks — age-based salary-multiple targets.
- Michael Kitces — safe withdrawal rate research — modern updates to the Trinity Study.
FAQs
The standard answer is 25× your expected annual expenses in retirement — derived from the 4% safe withdrawal rule. Spending $60,000/year? Target portfolio is $1.5M. The replacement-income approach says aim for 70–80% of pre-retirement income; if you earn $100k, target $70–80k/year of retirement income, with some coming from Social Security. Both methods land in roughly the same ballpark for a typical household.
The 1998 Trinity Study by Philip Cooley, Carl Hubbard and Daniel Walz at Trinity University. They tested historical US stock/bond returns from 1926–1995 and found a 50–75% stock portfolio could withstand 4% inflation-adjusted annual withdrawals across virtually every 30-year period without depletion. Updated research (Pfau, Kitces) now suggests 3.5–4% as a more conservative range, especially for retirements lasting 35+ years.
For a balanced portfolio that gradually de-risks as you approach retirement, 6–7% nominal is realistic over a multi-decade career. A 100% equity portfolio can plausibly average 8–10% nominal but with high volatility — not suitable for the final 10 years before retirement. Subtract 2–3% from any nominal number to get a real (inflation-adjusted) return, which is what your purchasing power will actually be.
As of 2025, the average Social Security retirement benefit was about $1,976/month (~$23,700/year). The maximum at full retirement age is roughly $4,018/month ($48,200/year), and delaying to age 70 raises the max to about $5,108/month. For a household needing $60k/year in retirement, SS typically covers 30–50% of expenses, with the portfolio covering the rest. Check your personal estimate at ssa.gov/myaccount.
Three levers in order of impact: (1) work 2–3 more years — each year roughly cuts the savings shortfall by 15–20% via more contributions, more compounding, and fewer years of withdrawals; (2) raise contributions, including age-50+ catch-up ($7,500 extra in a 401(k), $1,000 extra in an IRA); (3) lower target expenses through geographic relocation, paying off the mortgage, or downsizing. Avoid taking on more investment risk to "catch up" — that's how people lose what they have left.